Thursday, July 23, 2026

Asset Allocation and Diversification

 With so much of turmoil in the world and climate changes, it is time Asset Allocation and Diversification is revisited.


My Asset allocation constructs is as follows (India focussed)

Asset allocation 

    Mutual fund

     Equity

    Fixed Deposit

    Gold/Silver

    Real Estate

Mutual Fund

    Equity

        Large Cap

        Mid Caps

        Small Caps

        Multi Caps

        Multi Asset

        Index Funds

    Sector

         Banking Sector

          Pharma Sector

          Infra Sector

           IT Sector

    Debt

        Corporate bonds

        Liquid Funds

        Arbitrage Funds

One may want, if required, a global diversification which can be done for Europe, China, US or Emerging markets with dedicated mutual funds (As of 2026 due to govt. regulation, the funds are blocked from investing abroad.





        

    

Friday, July 17, 2026

Working Incidents

 Many of the incidents listed below are hearsay and if you ask me from where i got them, I have no idea. Some may even call it Gossip.

CAVEAT :The below are not specific to any company, but culled over several years in Middle East and are of general nature. I do not have any specific incident that happened to me or the names and could have got from hearsay or observation. These are put as is and no guarantee is provided if it is real or made up. Read for pleasure and if a message is arrived at by the reader, can be used at his discretion. The usual disclosure of these incidents may or may not bear any relation to any person living or dead. 

 

 Incident 1.

 Heard of an owner who had given a max of 10% discount authority to the Sales manager. A friend of the owner wanted  a higher discount and approached him. The owner called the sales manager to his office and started shouting at him how he was giving 10% discount and how he was misusing his authority of giving 5% discount only and he would give only 5% discount even as an owner. The friend sensing his discount of 10% would fall to 5% quickly told the owner that he will go and discuss with the Sales manager and finally left with a 10% discount. Later the owner called the Sales Manager and apologized for the drama as he did not want to give a higher discount than what is there. This is called Skin in the game as the owner is responsible to the shareholders and not running a charity organization.

 Incident 2. 

 An owner working in a 25th floor office called his accountant and told him  to invest 100,000 USD in a company. The accountant said that company was a dud company and not to invest in it. The owner asked him whose money it was and upon being told it was the owners, was told to invest the money.

Six months later, the invested company went bankrupt and so did the 100,000 USD invested. The owner again called the accountant and said, See what has happened, why did you not advise me not to invest. The accountant replied, he had told the owner not to invest, but owner insisted on investing without heeding to his advice and the accountant followed the owners instruction. The owner then said, if i ask you to jump from the 25th floor will you do or you will hesitate and convince me that it cannot be done.You should have done that.

This is the risk of being an accountant- either way you are doomed. 

 Incident 3.

 The owner of a company took some money for his personal use from the cashier, gave some extra discounts, took a car etc.

End of the month the accountant brought him a statement which showed the money he took, the extra discount he gave, price of the car he took etc. giving him a bill of say, 50,000 USD. The owner vetted the statement and immediately took out his personal cheque book and gave the 50,000 USD settling the bill. This raises two important thing - a) he remembered all the events on what he spent and checked it it rather than getting it after a year or two and questioning the accountant - the whys of the spend- b) he is just the MD owner and cannot consider it as his company as there are other shareholders. This distinguishes between running the company and running it as a personal company. The real profitability of the business gets known and not confused with personal drawings. Tomorrow, the other shareholders should not say, you have taken out so much money for personal use and thus the company did not do well. 

Incident 4. 

 The owner because of some personal work done by a laborer, feels he should be rewarded. Instead of giving him some money, he gives him a position in his company. What this does is demotivates a qualified person already in the job. As he does not know the job, he keeps on asking the person how to do and since he is appointed by owner none can refuse. At least if he is good at the job it is fine, but unreasonable demands and benefits obtained from owner because of his closeness could cause the function to be not performed well.

Thus grading, right qualification and education for the jobs are essential to recruit and not just based on some personal work done for the owner. Owner can keep him under his payroll, but not jeopardize the company business.

 Incident 5.

 The company should be run in a professional manner and not be thought of as a honey pot to draw cash. When company makes money, dividends can be given to owners and be used for their personal purchases. Using Company money for personal hobbies can jeopardize the operations of the company and not know the true value of company or their profitability.

 Incident 6.

To ensure the Company business and personal business separate as well as to ensure future distribution does not cause litigation and bad blood, Companies should have a family office which controls what each of the family member takes. A certain profit from the profitable companies can be paid into the Family business for family members to take. This puts the correct perspective on segregating between personal expenses and corporate expense.

 Incident 7

Trust is an important commodity for working in Middle East. If the owners trust you, you can gain a lot and if you lose the trust, it could likely end up in hell. Another thing noticeable is people's ability to escape responsibility by saying or blaming someone else and it is here language helps. If you are a westerner, there could be an added advantage as London, Europe, US are places visited by people in Middle East for their vacation.

 Incident 8

When one person joined a Company in M.E., he was asked what designation he should take. His boss told him you can take any designation, but in this company you have do work from Mudhir Aam (General Manager) to Mandoup (Representative). My english version is you have to do the work from General Manager to Janitor.

Incident 9

One of the oft repeated remarks you hear is Ana Kallam (I have spoken). Thus, there is no official record of the Kallam (spoken). I always insist that they use Kalam (Pen to write/email) than Kallam (spoken). This way even after many years there is a record of what was agreed than being just a verbal assurance (at that time) and then later could be retracted.

 

My Investment Philosophy

 Every investor believes in how the world is going to move and reach a goal in future. Some may get it ight, while some may not.

For what it is worth, my logic of investment is as follows. Follow at your own peril even if you want to.


Stocks My investment philosophy









1) Data centers and AI to be future


2) Cloud computing large



3) 1 & 2 requires huge computing power and thus power is essential
4) Power, power distribution and electrical equipments in demand
5) Solar power key to increased power


6) Infra and pharma will be there for job generation and health
7) Beauty and beauty products and clothes as people want to look good
8) Fintech as ppl shun cash



9) To move all this around logistics & transportation


10) Defence to safeguard above










1) Data centers  HCL





LTIM





Tanla





Route





Techno Electric




Kaynes










2) Power
Tata power




NTPC





Havells





Epac





Msumi





SWSolar





Suzlon





CG Elect










3) Infra
KNR





Kaisen Nerolac




Heidengberg









4) Pharma Zydus





SRF





KIMS





Indraprastha 









5)  FMCG
Emami





Nykaa





Ambika

















6) Fintech
Paytm





jio Fin





Oracle










7)Logistic
TCI










8) Defence Bharat Forge









9) Auto
IMPL





Amarraja










10) Bank
HDFC





LIC





HDFC life





HBD





ICICI










11) Mkt
CAMS





BSE/NSE





CDSL





IGIL










Nobody can predict future. My selection is based on

a)  likely trends i expetct

b) promoter shareholding >50% (skin in the game)

c) past sales and pbt record of 15% growth and 20% growth respectively

d) PE lower than 25

e) Debt/Equity is <0.5

f) Market Cap of >1000 crores ( large companies only) 

Too many data can cause Analysis - Paralysis 

 













































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































 

Mutual Fund My investment Philosophy 1) more debt funds as you age 2) Large cap, multi asset - steady and diversified 3) Mid cap and small cap for alpha 4) Sector - for alpha 5) Index fund - sleepy investing 6) Banking- more funds around more needs 7) Overseas diversification 1) Debt ABSL corp bond Absl money mgr ICICI liquid Icici ultra liquid Hdfc liquid ABSL Floating ABSL life saving Bandhan gilt Axis all season Nippon india AAA PGIM arbitrage DSP Arbitrage DSP Fmaturity ABSL long duration HDFC bal adv fund HDFC corp bond Nippon nivesh lakshaya ICIci Lterm Bond ICICI bal advtg Edel gov. sect ICICI Gilt sbi magnum UTI money mkt 2) Large cap Axis blue chip hdfc top 100 icici multi asset 2a) Hybrid PP Con hybrid Baroda con hybrid HDFC hybrid ICICI eq and debt ICIcI multi asset SBI multicap pp Flexi PP ELSS 3)mid and small DSP ABSL 4) Sector Nippon pharma SBI healthcare Nippon banking 5) Index UTI nifty UTI next nifty SBI Sensex 6) banking Nippon banking 7) Overseas Edelweiss china Edel weiss Europ kotak FoF-US Mosl S&P-US

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Movement of investment

 An important classification on how market moves is critical to understand the markets

 

Short Term - Short term volatility of market is due to EVENTS. A war, or famine or some disruption causes the market to dip. Maybe it the right time to buy as things will get to normal later.

 Mid Term - Mid-term volatility of market is due to LIQUIDITY. A hike in int. rates, CRR etc. makes the liquidity suck out of market or infuses funds. Selective buying of stocks affected by this may be a good buy.

Long Term - Long term is defined by VALUATION. If long term investment is to be done valuation is critical to see if the purchase price justifies its valuation. These generally go through up and downs over a period of time and requires non emotional investing of not getting scared and dumping the share when it dips more than you thought it would.

 

Is it a boon or bane to be born poor

 Is it a bane to be born poor. Over the period have seen rich and powerful rapists getting bail and case is twisted or the people bought out to drop the case.At the same time a poor dalit laborer is hung for committing a crime or killed in an encounter.

While I am not an advocate for pardoning or for lower punishment for a criminal, the stark difference in how a rich and a poor is perceived by the courts need to  understood.

A crime is a crime irrespective of who it is and punishment is a necessity, but uniformity provides a comfort to people that justice will be done and not skewed towards rich.

A serious thought is to be put in at the judiciary level. Politicians prefer it that way. A person breaking the hospital or hitting doctors cannot be pardoned for any reason. It is the fault of politicians that govt. hospitals are not funded properly and relatives or known people are put in there. If  all govt. hospitals are a place of excellence, pvt medical hospitals and insurance issues that crop up will not be there.

Time for an independent judiciary and not dependent on govt. for posting. 

 

Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Time in the market

 Time in the market or Timing the market.


One often hears that Time in the market is essential than timing the market. Is that so?


I believe both are equally important. 

Time in the market refers to the compounding effect of putting in SIPs or investing and forgetting as it gains reinvestment and returns. But not necessarily that is true. Inflation beats down the compounding. Invest at 6% and inflation is 7% you will gain on compounding but lose on inflation.


Timing the market means buying when equity or whatever is low (generally refers to equity) and then selling when the equity is high making a good profit. The reason many discourage this (particularly sellers of equity with promising returns) is they feel a normal customer is not into checking the daily rates and quarterly reports. This timing is primarily for traders. As an investor, generally when bad news comes (like 500% tariff) or a calamity which temporarily blips a good stock and sees a dip, you may want to buy it for it to get over the bad news. Thus technically, you could time the market or when markets are down and index is bought at lower rates is also timing the market and selling when the market is hot.

Reason why many also do not encourage timing the market is our greed and uncertainty. Two key things that keep the investor group in a mediocre status is when to buy and when to sell.  Is the market too low or will it go lower (uncertainty) and when the market is high will it go still higher (greed). Once you set your goals (maybe 25% or 50%, rise and I will sell) sell it and do not worry- like only if i had kept it, I could have earned 1000%. These things happen in life- be it  to the topmost or bottom most investor. There is no fixed formula to achieve what top investor achieves. It all boils down to probability (some inside information) and amount of investment you bet. 10 Rs even with 100% return will get you 20 Rs. The same 50 Lakhs will get you 1 crore. Your ability to invest (needing a steady and ensuring a stable life or can be on the streets attitude) determines if you are a 10 Rs investor or 50 Lakh investor.


One final piece of advice- Do not go for the TIP, go for the DIP.

If market is really falling, good chance you could pick some stocks to ride it when the market is rising. So, to me, Timing is not bad idea.

See my blog on movement in the market. 

Recent studies have shown that timing the market at lowest (not always possible) and timing the market at the highest gave a differential return of 2.5% or there about. Not much considering one never knows the top or bottom. Only age old stats can be used for this.

My policy has been

a) 25-30% return in a fund. liquidate some.

b) 8-9% return in a fund. hold and steady investing.

c) -ve or 2% return. Invest more if good and non fraudulent companies.

Life can be two types. Either you believe no one will survive- a $ or a million $ is of no use to you then or believe that world will revisit normalcy and revert to normal after the blip and your investments will make money. Choice is yours.



Saturday, May 31, 2025

Random Thoughts

 Random Thoughts

 

A small correct prediction of stock going up gives a tremendous confidence to make investment mistakes. These mistakes get compounded with fear and a bravado feeling that nothing can go wrong and the small correct prediction becomes the booster for any future investment in stocks

 One should realize early that stock picking is a huge task that has at a minimum, the following parameters

- Regularly track the stock market and price

- Regularly analyse the management reports

- Regularly check the economic news and impact

- Regularly attend Conference calls

- Regularly find inside information

- Etc. etc.

Thus without  a full time job, no one can do the above and best is to stick to Mutual Funds or PMS or trusted RIA. For fun purpose, you can invest a small portion and see the growth or decline and not feel bad about it.

 I do not advocate that you should not read and keep yourself up to date with news flows as it validates your MF or PMS or RIA investor investments.

Human tendency is to mask failure and gloat over success, however little it may be.

Finance is unlike Physics, Chemistry or Medicine etc.  There is difficulty in drawing up failure analysis (called the Root Cause Analysis) . If a wrong medicine is given, the procedures to go to the root of the cause can be drawn and ensure in future the symptoms that determine the medicine to be given. So too in Physics and Chemistry we can have the Root Cause Analysis to determine why it happened and how it will behave in future.

Finance, except a few cases like bank checks checking, amount of Dr. Cr. etc, are most likely to be unpredictable. Who would have thought of events like 9/11, covid, 2008 crisis, great depression, tariffs of Trump, WWI/II and market falling and rising subsequently due to Hormuz blockage, Iran US war etc.

History can teach something, but not everything. History can be a guide not a predictor.

People's reaction to such singular events can be as follows: 

A Pessimist a) Market is falling - Sell everything

A highly Optimist  b) Market is falling - Buy everything 

A mediocre optimist c) Market is  falling - Wait for it to fall more 

A reasoned optimist d) Market falling - Wait for further news. and many more. 

Thus, market reaction is unpredictable and so too our decisions impacting those. This unpredictability is what makes the market swing like a YOYO. I remember some one in the investor community during covid time saying, "Becho (Sell)" Market is falling like crazy and companies may cease to exist. Another investor saying " Saare Kharido (Buy all)". End of the day the Kharido guy made money as Covid passed and company started making money and thus stock prices rose.

It should be known that even great investors hit a jackpot in probably 6 out of 10 stocks, but many less and even lose a lot, but overall they have more success than failures in value terms. Thus, they become trend setter like Warren Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, PrashantJain etc. Its not necessarily their call was right, but maybe luck favoured them. 

My philosophy in life is when you wake up, think this is the last day in your life and see what all good can you do and achieve for mankind. 

If you want to see my investment philosophy, that is another blog.