The last few days has seen a big debate on the NSSO data which is there or not there, leaked and in process and so on so forth. Irrespective of what the data is, there is no doubt that the unemployment rate is higher than what is expected and thus the reluctance of govt. to release particularly in a sensitive time when elections are going to be held. It is understandable. The opposition argument that Modi promised jobs and this data does not reflect that. The same argument can be used against opposition which said Garibi Hatao, but it never happened. Again the opposition is promising a huge payout for farmers not realising that if they do not meet the FRBM of 3-3.5% Moody and other agencies will drop the credit rating for India making it a serious issue for govt or companies to raise funds in future for business.
Now coming to the key question of why unemployment is higher vs higher GDP growth, my take is on the following points:
a) Over the last few years thanks to the IT boom, the number of colleges that have opened has increased tremendously. Though quantity has increased, the quality is bad and people are given degrees at will for the high private tution fees they pay. Many of these have now closed. 80-90% of those getting the degrees are in the field of IT and communication and not in the other standard engineering field of civil, mechanical etc. To focus more most of the people passing out learn a few software languages and pass out. One should understand that the world of IT changes rapidly like Murphy's law. What one learns in 1st year is already redundant by the time they pass out. Eg. learning java, html is now passe as python other app writing software come up. Thus we have a pool of educated engineers who are technically uneducated and thus getting a job in the rapidly changing market is declining. Further, many did their software education in the hope of getting a job in google, MS etc or a posting in US, Europe etc. As the economy in the West weakened, those jobs got removed and thus impacting the so called educated IT software engineers. Govt. cannot be held responsible for the rapidly changing world wide scenario and students like lemmings going to do one specific course. Had many of them diversified into other fields of engineering, the shortfall that is felt in other areas could have been filled.
b) The govt. is moving out of managing business like PSU's to a more hands off and private participants in the economy model. This is a right move as otherwise we will have people working (technically not working) in the govt as can be seen by the bloated staff costs and ineffective Air India and other PSU's. Thus it is less and less with the govt. for job creation and more and more with the private sector. The private sector has not taken off to the desired level is a private sector worry (though some policy decisions do matter) and the world economy slowdown is also not helping despite govt giving mudra loans and incentives for Start up India, Make in India etc.
c) Demonetisation impact on real estate. Everyone knew and knows that the biggest black money is generated in real estate. Be it land deals, flat deals etc one had to pay 60:40 in black (particularly second hand flats) previously. With demonetization, the whole black money hole in real estate was broken and thus you see all the real estate suffering. While it was good to remove the black money, it had an unfortunate fall out. Indian economy is basically 60-70% cash/black economy. Nobody wants to pay tax and that is why the tax filers are just 3-4% and most of it private and govt. job holders. The unfortunate fall out was that without black money the real estate ground to a halt and the large labor forsce that was the hallmark of real estate was left redundant. With more clean money and less black money in real estate we could see a boom in the real estate and thus labor employment.
d) Farm sector. This is where the govt. initiatives on having huge cold and other storage has not kicked off, partly because many critics/supporters of govt. do not want biggies like amazon, walmart to come in albeit only those companies have capabilities and capacities to invest. The reason many do not want biggies to come in is because the trader and middlemen jobs will go away and making it cheaper for consumer and better pricing for farmers. The trader and middlemen lobby and vote and cash bank is behind the slow progress. This has caused huge production inequalities as farmers do not get input on the demand-supply and produce based on previous years pricing and demand. Thus we have huge potatoes crop growing in west bengal/bihar or huge sugarcane crop just because the price of these were high last year. This has also caused farmer unrest. If middlemen and their cash are eliminated, we could see the farm growth.
e) The GDP ratio is high as many jobs are getting automated and require less people. With online banking, about 10-15% jobs are gone as people transact business online. Restaurant business of the sitting variety is slowly feeling the pinch as people order food through zomato/swiggy. Also, restaurant business used to see a lot of waste, but now people with zomato/swiggy may keep the excess food in the fridge and reheat and eat the next day. Thus while efficiency is improving, the labor requirement is declining. This is one of the primary cause of GDP high and high unemployment rate. This will get aggravated in future as more mechanised farm techniques (requiring less labor), prefab buildings (requiring less labor), Automated transports (requiring less drivers), Artificial Intelligence ( requiring less data operators and dr/cr accountants and admin workers) and so on. Thus this same conundrum will be seen in future too. High GDP with high unemployment. The biggest example can be as touted by NDTV that they use Samsung mobile camera. This essentially eliminates the cameraman, and the reporter can go anywhere without the need to lug in a cameraman and drivers etc. Thus opposition touting unemployment as a failure is not a failure as technology catches many off guard. Everyone has to see how the people can be gainfully employed. This is where the Skill India comes in place.