India's Incompetence - Incredible India turning to be Incompetent India

When the first wave hit, India considered itself to be in a safe zone and hoped to be the Santa Claus of the world. But with new variant hitting, the whole story of Incredible India has collapsed and now the world sees us as Incompetent India.

While many theories exist as to the situation we are in (May 2021), most of it can be squarely blamed on the govt. True, nobody knew the extent of vaccine requirement in India, when India started distributing vaccines to the world, but the govt should have ramped up production by releasing funds to the vaccine makers SII and Bharat Biotech.

The govt. has become more in a win all mode and this hubris has to be broken. The govt. could have done the following:

a) Talked to the various political parties and postponed the election for a year. Everyone would have agreed and those that didn't could have taken the blame.

b) Work with non BJP govt (end of the day people have elected them) and seek their support in the pandemic.

c) Talk to independent experts and the need for a strategy to tackle the issue

d) Stop being cheesed off for every comment that is made and spend time defending the comment.

e) Delegate and give more credence and support to competent people than dictating the policies from center.

f) Let media and reporting be free and not jail like UP does for every small thing (be it the rape case reporting, oxygen reporting etc).

g) Sab ka saath sabka vikas should have the priority and not focus on Hindu votes only. Hindus are self thinking and would not vote en-masse like other groups.

h) Be more reasonable and project a more approachable leader who is interested in India and not just BJP gaining power.

i) Megalomaniac projects can be put on hold as more productive projects are the need of the day- Sardar patel statue, Central vista, Bullet train are megalomaniac projects which can be tackled if we become rich and not when we are in a poor state.

j) Focus on Competent, Corrupt free, Compassionate India.

 If we do not do this, the Secular and free loving people of India will be shattered and we will go back to the -|India could have done, but did not do|- repeat of yesteryears. We will be only left with potential, not progress.

CORONA

In olden times Historians basically express the views of the rulers. Even if it was bad and cruel, the historians justified as they had to survive in the kingdom.
However, with the freedom given by whatsapp, blogs and multiple media electronic outlets, the versions of history has become too many to really understand what is correct and what is fake. Thus while olden times had one narrow view of history, currently we have a kaleidoscope of history and each one looks from his perspective.

I want to write about Corona and the current times. I am no historian but looking at from the day to day lives of living currently in Kuwait, though an Indian citizenship holder.

Since March 14, when Kuwait declared and banned flights and imposed restrictions as the covid cases started increasing, life has been difficult but not too difficult. I am speaking from the generally salaried class. Salaries have been cut from 10-65% in companies, making it a survival without saving salary. Rents, except for few humane kuwaitis have not been reduced and the rent which constituted around 25-30% before salary cut , now constitutes 50-60% of salary.

I know people like drivers (cars and taxis have been banned from opening), barbers,mechanics (saloons, car repair shops have been banned from opening), waiters and small time labors( restaurants and other shops, except for grocery or cooperative like govt, or lulu or city center have been closed) are finding it far more difficult as their earning is based on daily income and do not have balances in bank to fall back upon. There are some good Samaritans who give some money or food items to a few of the known people to fall back upon these times, but all are not fortunate to receive it.

The covid-19 has also exposed the visa trafficking and brought immense problems for the expats who purchased the visa and now have no jobs as everything is closed. Kuwait govt. has, given the situation, given an amnesty and allowing free accommodation and food and travel to their home country. But many countries airports are closed and thus they are stuck here. Hopefully, in the next 15 days by May 15, things will start improving and some restrictions reduced.

Timings in office is also short as curfew time which was initially 5 pm to 4 Am has been tweaked to now 4 PM to 6AM and now 8AM. With Ramadan, this leaves little time for shopping except on weekends.

One of the biggest issue is the select medicines for expats. As the select medicines are not available for expats in hospitals, getting critical medicine is a huge issue. The same medicine that costs 30KD a month in India costs 1250KD in Kuwait, making it difficult for expats to buy here. Normally, they bring their medicine quota from India by themselves or friends coming from there. Now that option is stopped.  Even the courier does not bring it. Kuwait govt. should at least provide some medicine till such time the issue is resolved or allow courier companies to bring them from India. Not everyone can get a really generous Kuwaiti owner like Mr. Fouad Alghanim who has assisted in getting the costly medicines.

Life otherwise is very uncertain about when things will become normal and when the financial situation will improve. Oil prices have also fallen a lot and strains the financials of the kuwait govt. This will have an impact on new projects and costs reduction which will impact on the salaries of staff. Many expats, particularly Indians, are looking to go back as the savings are evaporating and any medical costs here will be exorbitant for them to bear.

It is 2nd May today and things are expected to continue with lock downs till the end of month. One is not sure if there is going to be a relaxation after that. Most distressing in the world is near and dear one dying but close friends and relatives not able to go to the funerals due to lock down. Cases of parents dying, children dying in different cities/countries and the close relative like children or parents in another country and not able to go and console.

Zoom app has become the most popular for interactions with 30 or more people at same time. Being extensively used by schools, business meets etc. Concern is that it being a Chinese app and all data being doctored by china raises serious security and data privacy issue.

This brings to the issue of is China doing this to become the next super power replacing USA. At least USA had a semblance of democracy which Trump is destroying, but at least  it exists. With China there is no democracy and all are monitored through camera, social media, GPS and thus puppets in the regime of China. You can disappear any time. If china becomes a super power, GOD help as they will grab economically (like loans to Malaysia, Burma, lanka, Pakistan, and so many african countries) or physically like the south china sea.

Only time will tell by 2021 who is the next super power. Many theories are floating like China new about this and ramped up production of ventilators and masks and other disinfectants which the world is buying in huge lots at a good price from them. People talk of moving business out of China to places like India or other south east asian countries. But innovation, disciplined and dedicated staff and with poor labor laws and making it cheaply  are some of the factors business (which is already down)leaders will think when shifting from China.

Pun style

With whatsapp becoming popular and people are keen on typing on the words instead of speaking, the art of pun or the quick joke has become the order of the day. Take for example. Somebody sent a picture of pope in the stadium in Dubai

My comment was that it shows he was Popeular (popular).

If you know multiple languages then all the more you can adjust the words to make it a Fun pun.

Eg. Someone went to Canada and said it was Kashtam (difficult in Tamil ) adjusting there. My take was it may be Kashtam initially, but you will get Accustomed (akashtomed) soon. You get it.

Then we had a famous singer Neyveli Santhanam and he gave me a few of the gems. At one place a lady told him she will make upma with Kaaya (vegetables in Tamil). As it will take time, he said but ensure that "En vaitha kaaya podadengo" (Don;t starve me in tamil). The word Kaaya has two meanings. It is vegetables as well as it also means leaving it to dry i.e the stomach should not be left out to dry. The nuances are more enjoyed in tamil.

Same is the word Kathi (in tamil it means knife as well as loud sound). Thus if some one brings a knife (kathi) with fruits and says I have kept a kathi with fruits, the response will be Kathi (loud) sola vendam, I can see it.

I will add more to this as and when I get some.There is one on twitter on naan being veg or non(naan veg) and others including Sashi tharoor pitching in.

How strong are your Pundamentals

Lightning shocks people - as it does not know how to conduct itself

Accidentally swallowed food coloring, but Dr. said Ok, but I fee, I have dyed a little inside

Two peanuts were walking in a tough neighborhood and one of them was a-salted.

Shekhar Gupta new video on 5 achievements of Modi

A recent video of Shekhar Gupta circulating around in Whatsapp talks of 5 things Modi has done good in the current regime. To recap he said what is required is political economy. Good economy does not necessarily translate into votes. These are a) IBC - Bankruptcy code bringing in responsibility on corporates that they will not scoot if they do not pay loan b) Infrastructure investment c) low inflation bringing it because 8.33% to 3.2% d) keeping the deficit in control around 3.5% e) tax collection to GDP improvement and f) GST introduction and holding its nerve through difficult times and not going back on it.

What he missed out also, that there was no major scam. Though Congress is trying to make Rafael as a big thing as bofors, there is no way a remote comparison can exist. If Anil was favored, why is he not supported now that his R.Com has gone the NCLT way. The Rafael deal was started by UPA and as IAF was falling short of aircraft and this was an emergency issue thrust on NDA by UPA and the NDA govt. had to  quickly order readymade 36 instead of 126. As every accountant knows, except those in the Congress that additional costs of doing the India needed changes has to be now absorbed by 36 and not 126 and thus the higher cost due to Fixed cost distribution, while the base price was reduced by 9%.  Congress including mamta should go to the Cost Accountant office situated in Calcultta to understand accounting. If the base price is fine, and the additional cost is distribution of Fixed cost, then there is no hanky panky. Also, it is a direct govt. to govt. deal.

Then comes the PMO intervention. The french requested, being a govt. to govt. deal to issue a guarantee from their PM office to our PM office. No price was negotiated higher, it was matter of sovereign guarantee, which given the emergency of our requirement had to be given.

Finally, comes the Anil Ambani allocation of offset. This was by Dassault who looking at the location and ability of Anil to do business has given on a private basis.If instead of Anil, anyone else had been given, the same issue would be raised. The offset that is being done is not of highly technical work and that too not for Rafael. These are some other products for their other division.

In all these cases, nothing is proven that cash was paid or commission was paid as in the case of Bofors/Augusta Westland and Submarine and so on to specific persons in BJP or their relatives.

Why not HAL awarded offset. HAL has a poor track record of performance. The tank/aircraft etc takes so much of time and given the support and existence for long, unlike China they have not come out with great world beating products. And on top of it, it does not behove of supposedly techincal giant to taken up work of low sophisticated product which is what the offset is all about.

Thus it is election time and as usual congress is trying desperately to pin some corruption on Modi as in the last 5 years other than issue of tolerance, high handedness, nothing has been proven be it vyapam, vasundra raje cases etc.

Standup comedy ideas -1

We Indian husbands are considered by our wives as Ambassadors. No, no I do not mean the ambassadors dotting the various embassies across the world saying good things about India. We do not continuously praise our wives, so we are not that ambassadors. What Indian husbands are considered as Ambassadors is the Ambassador car very famous in India. Unique, Antique piece, irreplaceable and sitting in one corner quietly. Once a while it is dusted. We Indian Husbands are that ambassadors.

Successful marriage is not as generally assumed and believed between two beautiful bodies- no doubt any marriage with God's grace is between two well endowed people-, but as I said just because two beautiful bodies meet together need not always be a successful marriage. Otherwise, Sophia loren, Malika Arora, Chitrangada, Diana marriages would have been all very successful. Thus marriage is all about sharing (your credit cards significantly), loving (all that she likes), understanding (their bad mood days and not passing sly comments at that time) and end of the day not hating each other. Those are the characteristics of a successful marriage.

Unemployment vs higher GDP growth conundrum

The last few days has seen a big debate on the NSSO data which is there or not there, leaked and in process and so on so forth. Irrespective of what the data  is, there is no doubt that the unemployment rate is higher than what is expected and thus the reluctance of govt. to release particularly in a sensitive time when elections are going to be held. It is understandable. The opposition argument that Modi promised jobs and this data does not reflect that. The same argument can be used against opposition which said Garibi Hatao, but it never happened. Again the opposition is promising a huge payout for farmers not realising that if they do not meet the FRBM of 3-3.5% Moody and other agencies will drop the credit rating for India making it a serious issue for govt or companies to raise funds in future for business.

Now coming to the key question of why unemployment is higher vs higher GDP growth, my take is on the following points:

a) Over the last few years thanks to the IT boom, the number of colleges that have opened has increased tremendously. Though quantity has increased, the quality is bad and people are given degrees at will for the high private tution fees they pay. Many of these have now closed. 80-90% of those getting the degrees are in the field of IT and communication and not in the other standard engineering field of civil, mechanical etc. To focus more most of the people passing out learn a few software languages and pass out. One should understand that the world of IT changes rapidly like Murphy's law. What one learns in 1st year is already redundant by the time they pass out. Eg. learning java, html is now passe as python other app writing software come up. Thus we have a pool of educated engineers who are technically uneducated and thus getting a job in the rapidly changing market is declining. Further, many did their software education in the hope of getting a job in google, MS etc or a posting in US, Europe etc. As the economy in the West weakened, those jobs got removed and thus impacting the so called educated IT software engineers. Govt. cannot be held responsible for the rapidly changing world wide scenario and students like lemmings going to do one specific course. Had many of them diversified into other fields of engineering, the shortfall that is felt in other areas could have been filled.

b) The govt. is moving out of managing business like PSU's to a more hands off and private participants in the economy model. This is a right move as otherwise we will have people working (technically not working) in the govt as can be seen by the bloated staff costs and ineffective Air India and other PSU's. Thus it is less and less with the govt. for job creation and more and more with the private sector. The private sector has not taken off to the desired level is a private sector worry (though some policy decisions do matter) and the world economy slowdown is also not helping despite govt giving mudra loans and incentives for Start up India, Make in India etc.


c) Demonetisation impact on real estate. Everyone knew and knows that the biggest black money is generated in real estate. Be it land deals, flat deals etc one had to pay 60:40 in black (particularly second hand flats) previously. With demonetization, the whole black money hole in real estate was broken and thus you see all the real estate suffering. While it was good to remove the black money, it had an unfortunate fall out. Indian economy is basically 60-70% cash/black economy. Nobody wants to pay tax and that is why the tax filers are just 3-4% and most of it private and govt. job holders. The unfortunate fall out was that without black money the real estate ground to a halt and the large labor forsce that was the hallmark of real estate was left redundant. With more clean money and less black money in real estate we could see a boom in the real estate and thus labor employment.

d) Farm sector. This is where the govt. initiatives on having huge cold and other storage has not kicked off, partly because many critics/supporters of govt.  do not want biggies like amazon, walmart to come in albeit only those companies have capabilities and capacities to invest. The reason many do not want biggies to come in is because the trader and middlemen jobs will go away and making it cheaper for consumer and better pricing for farmers. The trader and middlemen lobby and vote and cash bank is behind the slow progress. This has caused huge production inequalities as farmers do not get input on the demand-supply and produce based on previous years pricing and demand. Thus we have huge potatoes crop growing in west bengal/bihar or huge sugarcane crop just because the price of these were high last year. This has also caused farmer unrest. If middlemen and their cash are eliminated, we could see the farm growth.

e) The GDP ratio is high as many jobs are getting automated and require less people. With online banking, about 10-15% jobs are gone as people transact business online. Restaurant business of the sitting variety is slowly feeling the pinch as people order food through zomato/swiggy. Also, restaurant business used to see a lot of waste, but now people with zomato/swiggy may keep the excess food in the fridge and reheat and eat the next day. Thus while efficiency is improving, the labor requirement is declining. This is one of the primary cause of GDP high and high unemployment rate. This will get aggravated in future as more mechanised farm techniques (requiring less labor), prefab buildings (requiring less labor), Automated transports (requiring less drivers), Artificial Intelligence ( requiring less data operators and dr/cr accountants and admin workers) and so on. Thus this same conundrum will be seen in future too. High GDP with high unemployment. The biggest example can be as touted by NDTV that they use Samsung mobile camera. This essentially eliminates the cameraman, and the reporter can go anywhere without the need to lug in a cameraman and drivers etc. Thus opposition touting unemployment as a failure is not a failure as technology catches many off guard. Everyone has to see how the people can be gainfully employed. This is where the Skill India comes in place.

Demonetisation and unemployment

Two topics of discussion as we run into the heat of politics in the heat of the climate also are the demonetization and unemployment. Nobody talks of corruption like in earlier govt. that linked politicians to middlemen and money trails. Everyone in India knows that Modi does not need money even after retirement given the frugal living. Cannot be said of the opposition politicians like Akhilesh, lallu's children, mayavati etc who live in palatial building and want more. Can they also attempt to live like Modi. The only link they are trying is to bring in Anil Ambani, which has been selected by Dassault and no letter/link is there from govt. to grant it to him so far.

Coming to demonetization, when it happened it sucked out the money from the cash dealings that was the norm. It showed that 80% of our economy was run on cash and implying that 80% of the economy was run on black money. It needed great courage to attack this black money economy even at the cost of creating problems for the lowest of the earners. It is surprising that the poor took the demonetisation very well suffering but giving it a thumbs up. It was only politicians who were against it or those whose basic business was dependent on black money. With the fear of demonetisation many of the people would now think twice about doing business in cash and would prefer to file the income tax. This no doubt has generated more filing and thus bringing the filers of tax from a meagre 2-3% to a higher level. This will go up if the govt. does not change as otherwise it would be back to status quo of people doing business in black money.

The negative effect of demonetisation that caused unemployment was purely because most of our business was in black and it got stopped like the real estate business. Every Indian knows that BLACK MONEY is related to CASH as every illegal transaction takes place not through wire transfer but cash transfers. EG. How many of us would have paid cash as speed money to get things done. Did we pay by credit card or bank transfer? How many of us would have paid 60% in Cash to builders or buying from others (70%) to avoid paying tax and thus generate Black money. Was it paid as cheque/card/transfer - the answer is NO. Thus implying Cash and blackmoney are hand in hand.
I still remember coming to Middle east and wanting to buy a DDA flat in Delhi in the secondary market. I was told i would have to pay 75% in black money. I had to lose the deal as the bank would not lend me money as the deal would be registered on 25% value and payment 25% in cheque and my loan a %age of 25% value. Where would I suddenly get cash?
Today, nearly everyone be it builders, sellers are seeking 100% by draft/check. Thus black money area is reduced to a large extent in the real estate. If a a new govt comes possibly it could reverse to the earlier blackmoney percentage.

Demonetisation has been made to a Demon by politicians and certain section of media. As a principle it is a good move that should be done every 10 years. However we have to take care of the jugaadoo people who used some of the corrupt bankers and some of the CA's to bypass and convert their cash to bank account. But the one advantage is that most of the money is now routed through banks. Data Analytics can do the magic of finding whose account was used to convert blackmoney and then action taken.